Governments everywhere feel a public mandate to protect populations from the dangers of natural and manmade disaster events. To this end, modern societies are routinely delivered press release driven mass media puff pieces about how well they are protected against the various kinds of natural and manmade disasters.
How do we know when a government is truly delivering on its committments and promises? How do we know we have effective protection? What would be required if effective early warning systems were indeed in place? How can we know?
Any truly effective disaster early warning system must include the following elements in place and working in combination:
- The primary delivery method for warning signals must be wireless (R/F), point to multipoint.
It is imperative that the warning signals be sent and received in “real time” and over systems that will be the most robust and most reliable during large scale disaster events.Landlines (Public Switched Networks) do not have real time capacity or robustness required for directed real time warnings to large numbers of users during disasters. Internet related (Ethernet) systems are subject to overload, power failures, and significant latency (delays) during disasters. - Receiving devices must be always capable of receiving early warning transmissions.
Receiving devices must always to receive a signal and initiate immediate mitigation responses. R/F signal must have priority access over other transmissions with priority overrides and/or short burst packets. Receivers must have battery power capability during times of power interruptions. - The System must include a wide variety of receiving devices capable of generating both human and automated responses.
Different disasters require different levels and types of responses. Some disasters such as earthquakes have very short warning times requiring completely automated responses between sensors, activators, and a hierarchy of controlling computers to properly mitigate damages without human intervention. With “quick twitch” short warning period disasters such as earthquakes, human responses need to be backed up with pre-programmed responses from devices to act when human responses are not available, reliable, or effective. - The System must perform real time data collection and pattern analysis for all types of natural and manmade disasters to enable effective early warnings for all potential threats.
This creates an “All Hazard Warning” capability and provides a single delivery source to prevent duplication of hazard warning devices for users and standardized responses for more effective human interface. - The System must eliminate false warnings.
Elimination of false warnings maximizes authenticity of warnings when received. Effective warnings require those warned to have a high degree of certainty that their life and/or property are in danger so that warnings are not ignored. When warned, they respond. Warnings must be sent only to those users in actual danger from a disaster event in progress. - The System must eliminate failed warnings.
Early warnings must always be given when needed. An effective early warning system requires users to have a high degree of certainty that warnings will always be issued when danger is present. This requires:
- Real time knowledge of the magnitude, location, speed, and direction, of all disaster events.
- Real time knowledge of location information (long/lat) for all system users.
- Every type of hazard must be analyzed.
- Real time processing capability must be available to determine all users, and only those users, in actual danger from a disaster event before impact to users.
What do you think? What is missing? What is unnecessary?
This post from a summaryof an earlier article entitled Effective Disaster Early Warning Systems in the 21st Century.
